8th HKU Quarterly Forum on Chinese Economy

In his welcome speech, Professor Hongbin CAI, Dean of HKU Business School, emphasized the forum’s role in leveraging academic expertise to analyze China’s economic trends and policy directions. He stated that the School is dedicated to advancing high-quality growth and serving as a platform for cross-sector dialogue, where research-based insights inform practical solutions, particularly as China navigates uncertainties with the United States and embarks on its 15th Five-Year Plan.

The keynote report, “Towards the 15th Five-Year Plan: Security, Development, and Technology,” was delivered by Professor Zhenhua MAO. He outlined that China’s economic strategy must “coordinate security and development,” with a core focus on science and technology. Amidst persistent China-U.S. competition and global supply chain restructuring, he stressed the need to strengthen security defenses and overcome key technology constraints. He highlighted the “Three Ten Trillion” strategy to boost domestic demand, upgrade industrial systems, and advance high-standard opening-up. For Hong Kong, he recommended a strategic shift from “bringing business in” to “helping business go out,” leveraging its status as an international financial center to build a science and innovation hub and support national technological self-reliance.

Subsequent keynote speeches further enriched the discussion. Professor Heiwai TANG analyzed the evolving world order under a potential “Trump 2.0” administration, predicting prolonged China-U.S. tensions and a global landscape increasingly fragmented, digitalized, and regionalized. He urged Hong Kong to capitalize on its unique advantages in finance, governance, talent, and taxation to support national development.

Professor Hongsong ZHANG addressed the state of China’s industrial chain, noting its overall completeness but underscoring the urgent need for breakthroughs in key technologies. He advised enterprises to build diversified supply chains for resilience and called for industrial policies that target bottleneck sectors, promote collaborative innovation led by major firms, and reduce cross-regional trade barriers.

A roundtable discussion moderated by Professor Hongbin CAI featured leading economists and investment experts. They delved into the implications of the 15th Five-Year Plan, opportunities for Sino-U.S. industrial collaboration and AI competition, and expectations for capital and financial markets, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities within China’s economic landscape.